Crisp Mornings, Holiday Lights — And a Steady Plan
December in Arizona brings some of the most beautiful days of the year. The mornings are crisp, the sunsets stretch across the sky, and Christmas lights begin to glow around our neighborhoods. It’s a season filled with gratitude, reflection, and anticipation — and for us at Strategic Income Group, it’s a time to appreciate the privilege of guiding families and individuals toward living their best, most intentional financial lives.
While the holidays invite us to slow down, the markets and economic landscape rarely follow the same rhythm. So, before we turn the page to a new year, here’s where things stand — and how our process continues to keep you on track no matter what the headlines say.
The Fed: One More Cut, but a Cautious Tone
The Federal Reserve enters December with the federal funds rate sitting at 3.75%–4.00%, following its earlier rate cuts this fall. Markets previously expected another cut this month, but policymakers have signaled more hesitation, largely due to mixed economic data and persistent inflation pressures. Minutes from the prior meetings show a deep divide within the Committee, with some members concerned about financial vulnerabilities and others pushing for continued easing to support employment and growth.¹
Economic activity across Fed districts has been described as “little changed,” with softening in consumer spending and hiring in several regions.² Inflation is still above the Fed’s long-term target, and wage growth has started to cool. These are all factors behind the Fed’s more measured stance, even as recession risks remain low and GDP continues to grow at a moderate pace.
Markets: Sensitive, Choppy, and Headline-Driven
Markets have remained especially responsive to Fed communications and economic updates. After a strong run earlier in the year, investor sentiment has rotated between optimism and caution as new data arrives. Equity and bond markets alike have been adjusting to expectations around future interest-rate cuts and inflation trends.³
Mortgage rates remain elevated relative to earlier in the decade, not because of the Fed alone, but due to broader forces: global demand for U.S. debt, inflation expectations, and market supply/demand dynamics.⁴ Even if the Fed cuts again, long-term rates may move more slowly.
This is why our philosophy at SIG emphasizes process over prediction. Markets may swing on news, but your financial plan is built for long-term resilience.
A Quick Note on Bitcoin and Crypto
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have experienced a substantial pullback over the last few months. Volatility has always been a defining characteristic of this space, and we expect that to continue. Even so, long-term adoption trends remain strong, and when viewed through a 7+ year lens, the opportunity for growth remains meaningful.
Crypto — for those who hold it — should be seen as a long-duration, high-volatility allocation, not a short-term trading position. Your SIG team will continue monitoring developments as part of your broader planning conversations.
Staying the Course in a Noisy Season
This time of year often brings a whirlwind of economic headlines: inflation readings, Fed commentary, year-end market swings, AI-related layoffs, Bitcoin volatility, and forecasts for what 2026 may hold. It’s natural for these to pull your attention in different directions.
But while the scenery keeps changing, the destination hasn’t.
Your SIG financial plan — built through our disciplined framework and diversified across the appropriate investment buckets — is already structured to incorporate uncertainty, manage risk, and capture opportunity. Just as a well-planned holiday trip accounts for traffic, weather, and detours, your portfolio is designed for varying market environments without needing a course correction every time the news shifts.
At SIG, our confidence lies not in predicting the next headline, but in the strength of the process we use with every client.
Looking Ahead: Three Smart Moves as We Enter 2026
Since we covered year-end strategies last month, we want to look forward, helping you enter the new year with clarity and momentum:
- Start Your Contribution Strategy Early
Instead of waiting until year-end, many clients benefit from planning annual contributions at the start of the year. Pre-scheduling your 2026 401(k), IRA, or HSA contributions ensures you stay on track and maximizes compounding potential throughout the year.
- Refresh Your Financial Priorities for 2026
January is a natural reset point. Whether you want to fund a giving goal, plan for a major purchase, accelerate debt reduction, or strengthen your emergency reserves, now is a great time to review your priorities with your SIG Financial Planner.
3. Schedule Your Annual Planning Meeting
If you do not yet have a review scheduled, we encourage you to reach out. A beginning-of-year meeting helps ensure that your income, tax planning, investment allocations, and longer-term goals are aligned with your latest circumstances.
Operational Notes for the Holiday Season
To ensure smooth coordination with Schwab and timely processing:
- New account openings: If we have all required information by Tuesday, December 16th, we can confidently complete account setups before year-end. After this date, we will make every effort, but cannot guarantee completion due to holiday processing constraints.
- Office closures: Our offices will be closed on
• Wednesday, December 31st (New Year’s Eve) and
• Friday, January 2nd
to give our team additional time with family.
If you have urgent account needs during those days, please contact Schwab Alliance at (800) 515-2157.
From All of Us at SIG
As the year comes to a close, we want to thank you for the trust you place in our team. It is our mission — and our joy — to help you optimize your wealth, live your best life, and steward your resources with confidence and purpose.
We wish you and your family a Christmas season filled with peace, joy, and meaningful moments.
Here’s to a blessed and intentional start to 2026.
References
- Federal Reserve Board, FOMC Press Release, October 29, 2025.
- Federal Reserve Beige Book, November 26, 2025 – Summary of District Conditions.
- Reuters, “U.S. Stock Futures Steady Amid Fed Uncertainty,” December 2, 2025.
- Fortune, “Mortgage Rates and Market Dynamics,” December 1, 2025.
Compliance Disclosures
This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment, tax, or legal advice. The views expressed reflect conditions as of the date noted and may change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Strategic Income Group is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill. For more information, please refer to our Form ADV at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov.
