Staying Grounded in a Changing Environment

As we move through the second half of the year, clients often ask us, “So… how are things looking out there?” It’s a great question—and one we believe deserves a clear and simple answer.

Right now, the economy is offering a mix of signals: some steady, some surprising, and some still unfolding. Here’s what we’re seeing and how it connects to your financial plan.

The Fed Holds Steady—For Now

At its latest meeting, the Federal Reserve chose to hold interest rates steady for the fifth time in a row, keeping the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50%. That pause reflects growing caution. Inflation remains higher than the Fed would like, but it’s showing signs of moderation. Core CPI sits at 2.9%, while the broader inflation reading edged up to 2.7% in June.

While a rate cut later this year isn’t off the table, the Fed is walking a careful line—waiting to see how a cooling job market plays out before making its next move.

The Labor Market Is Slowing

July job growth came in significantly below expectations, with only 73,000 new jobs added across the country. Unemployment ticked up to 4.2%—not a red flag on its own, but enough to raise eyebrows. The labor market had been the quiet strength of the economy, and this shift signals a potential turning point.

Slower hiring, especially if sustained into the fall, could affect consumer confidence and spending. It’s one of the key trends we’re monitoring closely.

GDP Growth Surprises on the Upside

Despite the labor softness, the broader economy showed unexpected strength in Q2. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.0%, bolstered by increased consumer spending and a rebound in manufacturing. It’s a welcome change after a weak Q1 and offers reassurance that the U.S. economy continues to demonstrate resilience—even under the weight of higher borrowing costs.

Tariff Tensions Resurface

One wildcard this month is trade. New tariffs announced for August 7 have sparked concern across several industries. The long-term impact is still unknown, but supply chain costs and consumer pricing could be affected. Markets may remain volatile as businesses digest the implications.

What Does This Mean for You?

At Strategic Income Group, we understand how noisy the financial world can become. But here’s what we believe: while it’s important to stay informed, it’s even more important to stay grounded.

We don’t build financial plans based on headlines. We build them around your values, your goals, and your time horizon.

Your personalized strategy already accounts for times like these—when the data is mixed, and the outlook is uncertain. Our investment philosophy doesn’t react to every news cycle. Instead, it responds to your needs.

Unless something in your life has changed—your income, your priorities, or your timeline—there’s likely no action required on your part. But if questions arise, we’re here to talk through them with you.

Looking Ahead

We’re watching the labor market, inflation trends, and the ripple effects of tariff policy. If shifts occur that warrant portfolio or planning adjustments, you’ll hear from us first.

In the meantime, if you’d like to revisit your financial plan, explore our private funds, or schedule a strategic review, you can reach out any time. Your planner is only a click away.

Additional Resources

• SIG Resources – for most recent articles on firm updates, education, and strategy

• Schedule a Planning Review – to meet with your SIG Financial Planner

• SIG Estate Planning Service –   Is your Estate Plan up-to-date?  Ask us how we can help

---

Your plan is designed to weather uncertainty. But peace of mind doesn’t come from ignoring the headlines—it comes from putting them in their proper place.

If you have questions, don’t hesitate to reach out. We’re honored to walk this journey with you.